The Academy Awards are this weekend! For movie people like me, it’s one of my favorite events. I don’t care about the red carpet or anything leading up to the show, but I’ve been a devout Oscars watcher since I first got control of the remote (with four siblings, it was later than average). This year’s Best Picture race is great for two reasons:

  1. It’s one of the deepest fields in recent memory.
  2. It’s the first year I’ve dedicated to watching all ten!

Now you may be thinking, of course he thinks that the field is deeper because he’s watched all ten. I would counter with maybe I’ve watched all ten because the field is deeper. Either way, everyone makes Oscars picks and in a year that’s expected to go chalk, I decided to make a Menshawl Best Picture Bracket, presented by Menshawls.

Seeding was determined by the selection committee, whose whereabouts are kept under a protective shawl of anonymity. Similar to the college basketball tournament, there was an initial (not first) four which consisted of the four lower seeds duking it out. Scoring is completely arbitrary and only meant to show how close I think each contest would be. Let’s do this.

Initial Four

7. Barbie vs. 10. Maestro

Maestro snuck into the field with a late run in their conference tournament (aka Bradley Cooper’s press tour). My theory on Maestro is it would have benefited from a theatrical run instead of Netflix. Think about it, if Maestro came out only in theaters, would you have seen it? Putting it on Netflix over the holidays was just asking for non-movie buffs to watch it. “Oh I loved A Star is Born” your uncle probably said before pressing play on Maestro. If it had been in theaters and only people seeking it out saw it, I think the discourse would have been much more positive. Anyway, there’s no way it’s beating the behemoth that was Barbie. Final Score: Barbie 103-Maestro 81

8. Anatomy of a Fall vs. 9. Past Lives

For context, I watched Anatomy of a Fall at home today (two days before Oscars) and Past Lives on a plane four months ago. As a movie-theater lover, I’m sad I saw neither on the big screen, but you could argue these are the two nominees best suited for the small screen. Anatomy of a Fall is a courtroom whodunit drama that delves into the psychological aspects of how a partnership can devolve with career success (or lack thereof) and how the only child fits in. Very well written and performed, which can also be said about Past Lives. Past Lives is a very subtle movie about relationships that a lot of people can relate to. I don’t think it’s the masterpiece some make it out to be, nor the film school overachievers label others have given it. Regardless, Past Lives wins in a doozy. Final Score: Past Lives 83-Anatomy of a Fall 80

Best Picture Round 2

4. Killers of the Flower Moon vs. 5. American Fiction

If you didn’t see Killers of the Flower Moon because it was “too long” then you probably shouldn’t be reading articles like this. Scorsese’s latest film is a masterclass of using powerful imagery and subtle yet powerful performances to tell a horrific piece of American history. American Fiction is a very cleverly written movie that uses it’s writing and strong (about damn time) lead performance by Jeffrey Wright. One points out atrocities committed not that long ago while the other points out social issues that still prevail today. I thought both of these films were excellent.
Final Score: Killers of the Flower Moon 95-American Fiction 91 (Yes these scores are much higher than college basketball scores but don’t worry about it)

3. The Zone of Interest vs. 6. The Holdovers

Let’s start with the six seed here, Alexander Payne’s retro film The Holdovers. Filmed with a 70’s aesthetic and powered by likely Best Supporting Actress Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Best Actor nominee Paul Giamatti, this slice of life movie is a cozy delight. My main qualm is if you set your movie to be in a 70’s style, that needs to include the dialogue, which I felt was a bit 21st century watered down in terms of its bite. The Zone of Interest, which you probably haven’t seen, is the slowest burn of all of this year’s contenders. I left the theater shook, and drove home in silence. Slowly, what I had just seen starting to un-peel itself in my mind. This movie is deeply unsettling, but so powerfully shot and sound-edited that I do believe it has an outside shot at Best Picture. This is not a date night movie, nor a re-watchable, but it is masterfully done and just as important as ever. Final Score: The Zone of Interest 77-The Holdovers 70

1. Oppenheimer vs 7 Barbie

The matchup everyone was anticipating since the bracket came out 20 minutes ago. You may be wondering where the bracket is (it’s at the bottom but it’s filled out), and to that I say be patient. The Barbenheimer phenomenon was awesome for not only Warner Bro’s but also for movie goers. Who knows when and if something like that will happen again. Barbie is important in pointing out societal flaws with mens’ hubris, and it was funny how upset some people (men) got. However, Oppenheimer may be Christopher Nolan’s masterpiece (which is saying something) and merited a second theater go for me. Final Score Oppenheimer 101-Barbie 90

2. Poor Things vs 9 Past Lives

Could Past Lives pull of the biggest upset of the tourney here? No. Poor Things is the funniest movie of all the nominees this year. Yes it’s very sexually explicit, but I think it addresses some of the same societal issues as Barbie, but a little less on the nose. Emma Stone is great, (although I’m pro Lily Gladstone Best Actress) Willem Dafoe is really going for it, and I actually liked a Mark Ruffalo performance. The subtleties of Past Lives stand no chance. Final Score: Poor Things 99-Past Lives 78

Best Picture Round 3: The Almost Final Foursome

1. Oppenheimer vs 4. Killers of the Flower Moon

This one is tough, but once you make it to the Almost Final Foursome, that’s just reality. Both of these are historic epics with loaded casts (better cameo: Brenden Fraser in KOTFM or Josh Peck in Oppenheimer?) and Oscar-worthy performances. However, Oppenheimer landed the plane just a little bit better in terms of making it all come together. KOTFM took a chance by telling the story from the perspective of the villains and used a powerful but critically divisive Scorsese cameo to stand in for pre-credit title cards. These are two titans of movies, but Oppenheimer surivves a scare. Final Score: Oppenheimer 103-KOTFM 101; 2OT.

2. Poor Things vs. 3. The Zone of Interest

Two radically different movies with radically different stakes. One leaves you laughing, the other leaves you crying. Poor Things shows you everything while The Zone of Interest doesn’t show you the other side of the wall. That’s where The Zone of Interest hits the hardest, in what you don’t see. You can hear it though, it’s right next door. My vote for most powerful shot in a movie this year goes to the scene in Zone where the commandant’s family is enjoying a pool party in front of their green house. The frame begins to fill with smoke up top as a train pulls into Auschwitz next door.

Final Score: Zone of Interest 70-Poor Things 64

The Best Picture Final: Oppenheimer vs. The Zone of Interest

I love that I complained about this Oscar’s being chalk and proceeded to go completely chalk with my picks. I guess that’s what happens when the people seeding are also the people writing! It all comes down to two World War II era movies. Since Oppenheimer came out last summer, there has been more time that usual for the public at large to nitpick a Best Picture favorite. However, pound for pound, this movie is very deserving. Ludwig Göransson’s captivating score holds all of Nolan’s jump cutting in place. While The Zone of Interest may be the most important film of the year, Oppenheimer checks all the boxes of a Best Picture winner. Chalk can be boring, but chalk can also be deserving.